IM Sagar Shah analyzes the Candidates - who are you rooting for?
From the CEO
The FIDE Candidates 2026 is just 28 days away. When it comes to an event that captures the interest of chess audience there is definitely nothing better than the World Championship cycle. And Candidates is an absolute jewel. Whoever wins this 8-player, double round robin affair gets a match against the World Champion to dethrone them (Gukesh and Ju Wenjun). Let's try and have a look at the players in both the open and women and try to see who are the favourites.
Players who will be competing in the Open section. | Graphic: FIDE Socials
Open:
1. Hikaru Nakamura (2810)
2. Fabiano Caruana (2799)
3. Wei Yi (2754)
4. Anish Giri (2753)
5. Javokhir Sindarov (2745)
6. R. Praggnanandhaa (2741)
7. Andrey Esipenko (2700)
8. Matthias Bluebaum (2695)
Instead of telling you who I think are my favourites, I would like to share the general opinion of the people who have made tier lists on the internet and also the top players whom we interviewed on the media day in Weissenhaus. There is a general consensus amongst all the top players that Fabiano Caruana is the favorite to win this Candidates. I think it's a fair assessment. Fabi's strength in general is absolutely amazing, and the number of super tournaments that he has won is just mind-boggling.
Hikaru Nakamura, although he is the top seed, is hardly playing classical chess, and I think it is fair to assume that he would be rusty. At the same time, I have never really seen Hikaru being this focused for any tournament in terms of preparation in recent times. I would like to see if his sheer willpower and talent can make it possible for him to have a chance to win this Candidates.
I am a big fan of both Anish Giri and Wei Yi in terms of how they play chess. but people have mostly both of them in a similar category - chances to win but too solid.
If people were asked to make a tier list at the midway mark in 2025, I think Praggnanandhaa would have been a heavy favorite. However, the last six months haven't gone Praggnananda's way, and that would have surely impacted his confidence. At the same time, the last few months have been absolutely amazing for Javokhir Sindarov. Some people have given Sindarov an outside chance to win the candidates! As for Andrey Esipenko and Matthias Bluebaum, people do think that they will do well in the candidates and will fight well against the best players, but have almost negligible chances to win the tournament.
Favourite: Fabiano Caruana
Good chances: Hikaru Nakamura
Definitely to watch out for: Praggnanandhaa, Sindarov
Too solid: Anish Giri and Wei Yi
Fighters: Espienko and Bluebaum
Players who will be competing in the Women's section. | Graphic: FIDE Socials
Now let's shift our attention to the women's section:
1. Zhu Jiner (2564)
2. Koneru Humpy (2535)
3. Tan Zhongyi (2535)
4. Aleksandra Goryachkina (2534)
5. Bibisara Assaubayeva (2516)
6. Kateryna Lagno (2508)
7. Divya Deshmukh (2497)
8. R. Vaishali (2470)
I would say there is much less variance in terms of strength in the women's section than in the open section. In just pure terms of strength, I do feel that Zhu Jiner with a live Elo of 2564 is one of the favourites in the tournament, but this is her first ever Candidates, and I am pretty sure that there would be a lot of pressure on her shoulders. On the other hand, Koneru Humpy has immense experience. She played a World Championship match in 2011, 15 years ago, and here she is now fighting it out in the Candidates. Tan Zhongyi has won the Candidates in 2024. So clearly she has been there and done that - just like Alexandra Goryachkina. Kateryna Lagno is someone who has been in the top in the world of chess for over two decades now. I do feel that Tan Zhongyi and Goryachkina have excellent chances in this group of experienced players.
The remaining three players, Bibisara Assaubayeva, Divya Deshmukh and R. Vaishali, are young and talented and all 3 of them, I am pretty sure, are preparing immensely hard for the Candidates. To me, it seems that in the women's section just about every single player has a chance to win this tournament. But if I had to make some sort of a tier list, this would be it:
Favourites: Goryachkina, Tan Zhongyi, Zhu Jiner
Experience: Humpy and Lagno
Exciting talents to watch out for: Assaubayeva, Divya and Vaishali
Winners of the Candidates Tournament 2026 and Women’s Candidates Tournament 2026 will challenge World Champions Ju Wenjun and D Gukesh respectively! | Photo: Michal Walusza
I am actually pumped up for both the Open and Women's section. The winner of the Open section will take on Gukesh, and this will be very exciting for the world of chess. For example, if Caruana wins, maybe the St. Louis Chess Club would be very interested to host the World Championship Match. If Praggnananda wins it, and I'm pretty sure that the World Championship match will happen in Chennai with the two Chennai boys fighting against each other. Maybe in their Velammal School even! :) If Hikaru manages to win, his entire fan base will go crazy rooting for him in the match.
In the women's section, the winner will take on Ju Wenjun, and it's very interesting to note that Ju Wenjun has defended her last three World Championship matches. This is no easy feat. She managed to stave off challenges from Goryachkina, Le Tingjie, and Tan Zhongyi. She is undoubtedly the most accomplished active female player in the world of chess right now.
As for we at ChessBase India, we want to bring forth unparalleled coverage of these candidates by being present at the venue in Cyprus. We are looking for a title sponsor for our coverage, and if you are interested, then do reply to this email. We will send you more details. PS: Our coverage of the previous Candidates in 2024 itself had over 100 million views just on YouTube. :) We hope that this Candidates will be just as exciting and successful for Indian chess fans as it was in 2024! :) - Sagar Shah
HEADLINE OF THE WEEK
Prague Chess Festival 2026 R4: Vincent gets his first win, Jorden on a winning streak
After 4 days of action at the Prague International Chess Festival 2026, Jorden van Foreest has emerged as the sole leader of the Masters section after winning his round 4 game against Nodirbek Yakubboev with black pieces. Jorden is on 3/4 points with decisive results in all 4 of his games. In round 4, Vincent Keymer scored his first win of the tournament after beating defending champion Aravindh Chithambaram with white pieces. In the Masters, the other 3 games ended in a draw. In the Challengers section, Divya Deshmukh and Surya Shekhar Ganguly drew their respective games, and in round 5, they will be facing each other. The 5th round for Masters, Challengers, and Futures, and the 4th round of Open starts today at 3 pm local time, 7:30 pm IST. Photos: Abhyudaya Ram
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